Multiple analyses of Gaza Ministries’ figures for the numbers of Palestinians killed in the Gaza Strip show extensive evidence of fabrication and manipulation.

A review by UKLFI Charitable Trust (UKLFI CT) of several statistical analyses of the figures provided by Hamas-controlled ministries for Palestinians killed in the Gaza Strip in the current war has found  extensive evidence of fabrication and manipulation.

In addition, these figures include Palestinian combatants as well as civilians, and deaths from misfiring Palestinian rockets and Palestinian cross-fire. They may also include deaths from natural causes.

Despite these deficiencies, these figures are circulated by the UN and repeated without qualification in many media reports.

At the beginning of the war on 7 October 2023, statistics were produced by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry based on identified persons who were recorded as dead at hospitals or morgues, as in previous wars.  However, in contrast to previous conflicts, the figures were not verified by international organisations and the Gaza Health Ministry did not state how many of them were combatants, implying instead that all deaths were civilians.

From 3 November 2023 onwards, the Gaza Health Ministry also included figures from unidentified “reliable media reports”; and from 6 January 2024, they provided an online Google form for Gazans to submit details of fatalities, including missing persons presumed dead.

The proportion of the total casualty figures in the Health Ministry figures contributed by the media reports and Google form steadily grew from 22.5%  on 11 December 2023 to 42.8% on 29 February,  to 45.9% on 31 March 2024.

The use of media reports and Google forms obviously makes it easy for false reports to exaggerate casualties. There is also a substantial risk of duplication. However, analyses have shown that the figures for deaths said to be recorded at hospitals or morgues are not immune from interference.

From 12 November 2023 onwards, casualty figures have also been reported by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Government Media Office (GMO).

From 1 April 2024, the Gaza Health Ministry and GMO used the term “identified” for fatalities recorded at hospitals or morgues and some of the additional claimed fatalities derived from media sources and the Google form, and “unidentified” for the remaining claimed fatalities.

On 1 April 2024, 17,789 (54%) out of the claimed total of 32,916 deaths were recorded at hospitals or morgues and included in the “identified” category. An additional 2,864 (8.7%) of the total derived from media reports were also included in the “identified” category. The remaining 12,263 (37.3%) of claimed deaths were “unidentified”. Thus 81.1% of the fatalities derived from media sources or the Google form were “unidentified”. However, since 30 April 2024 the Gaza Ministries have not specified the number of “identified” fatalities.

Examples of fabrication include the following:

• The proportions of women and children in the figures derived from media sources have been implausibly high at over 90% and in the case of Gaza Media Office (GMO) data in 2023 at over 99%. These  extraordinary figures ensured that the proportion of women and children in the total figures remained above 70% with surprising consistency.
• From 1-8 December 2023, the recorded number of dead men was reduced by 1351 from 4850 to 3499, or 28%. In the same period, the recorded number of dead women and children was increased from 10664 to 13991, an increase of 3327 or 31%. These changes increased the proportion of women and children casualties from 68% of the total to 80% of the total.
• Some of those categorised in the Gaza Health Ministry data as “identified” women dead were known male terrorists.
• In the list of 21703 “identified” deaths provided by the Health Ministry on 1 April 2024, 440 had duplicate IDs, 470 had no IDs, 792 had the wrong number of digits in their IDs, and a further 1,486 had invalid IDs. In the list of 23,447 “identified” deaths provided by the Health Ministry on 30 April 2024, 1674 had no IDs, 829 had IDs with the wrong number of digits, and 1519 had invalid IDs. Additionally, 1206 entries were missing ages but were still classified demographically.

UKLFI CT also points out that  children and women killed cannot all be taken to be innocent civilians because Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organisations actively recruit teenagers and also have some women combatants. Persons up to and including 18-year-olds are categorised as “children” in the figures.

UKLFI CT observes that since the data is so unsatisfactory, it is impossible to provide reliable estimates of the numbers Palestinian killed in the current war. Israeli estimates of the number of Palestinian combatants killed must also be treated with some caution in the absence of explanations as to how they have been made and the obvious difficulty of obtaining accurate information from a multi-dimensional battlefield.

However, since unreliable figures provided by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministries have been repeatedly presented without qualifications, UKLFI CT tentatively puts forward estimates showing how the figures might be affected by adjustments reflecting the qualifications that should accompany them if they are presented at all.

UKLFI CT estimates that by 29 February 2024, about 19,000 Palestinians had been killed in the Gaza Strip, of which 9,000 were combatants and 10,000 were civilians; and that by 31 July 2024, 27,000 Palestinians had been killed of which 12,000 were combatants and 15,000 were civilians. On these estimates, the civilian: combatant ratio in the current war in the Gaza Strip was 1.1:1 in the period to 29 February 2024 and at 1.3:1 in the period to 31 July 2024.

Although every civilian death is a tragedy, UKLFI CT points out that these ratios are an order of magnitude lower than the average civilian: combatant casualty ratio in urban armed conflict worldwide in 2021 (over 8:1) and half of the ratio in the Mosul battle of 2016-2017 by Iraqi and allied forces against ISIS (2.5:1), despite the exceptional difficulty of operating in the Gaza Strip.

Jonathan Turner, Executive Director of UKLFI CT, commented: “It might have been justified for media organisations to avoid coverage of any of the figures on the ground that they are unreliable. However, since the Gaza Ministries’ figures for the total numbers of Palestinians allegedly killed have been repeatedly stated in media coverage, it is unbalanced and misleading not to state with similar regularity the figures provided by the IDF of the Palestinian combatants killed. This unbalanced and misleading media coverage is likely to be a major cause of rising antisemitism in the UK and around the world.

“Quality media coverage would also explain that the figures are unreliable and would put the figures in the context of other armed conflicts in urban areas in modern times, in particular the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in other conflicts. While such explanations need not be done in the course of every news bulletin, they should be prominently provided in media coverage of the conflict, especially given the importance attached to the subject by media organisations and many members of the public.”

To read the full review by UKLFI Charitable Trust, press HERE