False al-Ahli casualties still included in Hamas/UN data

The false figures for Palestinians killed by the explosion outside al-Ahli hospital on 17 October 2023 are still included in the total figures of supposedly identified Palestinian casualties of the current war in Gaza produced by Hamas ministries, published by the UN, propagated by media organisations and relied on by international courts and tribunals.

Readers may recall that it was initially reported that Israel had bombed the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City on 17 October 2023 killing around 500 Palestinian civilians.[1] It rapidly became clear that the explosion was in the car park outside the hospital,[2] was caused by a Palestinian rocket that fell short,[3] and resulted in far fewer deaths.

Initial US intelligence reports estimated that the true number of dead was “probably at the low end of the 100 to 300 spectrum,”[4] but subsequent assessments by European intelligence placed the figure at fewer than 50.[5] French intelligence stated that “We don’t see at all that a rocket that size could have produced 471 dead. It is not possible.”[6] Eyewitness reports stated that the death toll was in the dozens, not hundreds.[7]

The inclusion and retention of the false figures for the al-Ahli incident in the total figures have implications for the reliability of other figures and conclusions drawn from them.

We are very grateful to Dr Tom Simpson (co-author of “Statistically Impossible: A Critical Analysis of Hamas’s Women and Children Casualty Figures”) for the following explanation:

Hamas initially said that approximately 500 Palestinians had been killed in the blast, then a few hours later that there were 471 deaths. This figure went into the total casualties data that very same day: the Hamas-controlled Gaza Government Media Office (GMO) Telegram casualties statistics announcement for that day lists 678 additional deaths and explicitly states that 471 of that figure came from al-Ahli. This is very unusual as the MoH and GMO statistics announcements almost never mention specific incidents.

The 678 figure re-appeared about a fortnight later in a time series graph in the preface to the big “list of names” document that Hamas released at the end of October in response to President Biden’s comment that he had “no confidence” in the Palestinian casualty statistics. Thus, according to this document, there had been no downward revision of this figure. There has been no adjustment since then reflecting any revision, nor any statement that it has been revised. Assertions that the Gaza Ministry of Health has subsequently logged the correct number of fatalities[8] are not correct.
The inclusion of all 471 deaths in the casualty figures in a single day after the incident is noteworthy as the Gaza Ministry of Health hospital statistics purport to relate to bodies identified in hospitals.[9] The 678 total daily count was at this stage the largest number of casualties in a single day at that point in the war (the previous high was 420 on 12 October). According to the data, the Gaza Ministry of Health was apparently able to process all 471 al-Ahli bodies in a single day, in a (supposedly) crippled hospital. This seems improbable.
These alleged 471 deaths from the explosion outside the al-Ahli hospital are included in the data of deaths recorded at hospitals. Several analyses have demonstrated the extreme unreliability of the increasing numbers of additional alleged casualties reported by “media sources”.[10] In light of the inflated al-Ahli figures (and several other anomalies), it is clear that the figures for casualties reported by hospitals have also been manipulated.
Another time series graph in the preface of the “list of names” document released at the end of October showed that of the 678 bodies processed that day, 413 were female and only 265 were male. This was the only day between the start of the war and the release of the big “names list” document in late October that the female statistic exceeded the male statistic. This suggests that when Hamas fabricates casualties, it increases the number of women casualties.

This is significant because media organisations, such as the BBC,[11] and others have claimed that the number and proportion of Palestinians killed who were terrorists cannot be as high as Israel has estimated, because (they say) women and children cannot be terrorists and (according to the Hamas figures) 70% of the casualties are women and children.

The major premise (that women and children cannot be terrorists) is itself false, particularly as “children” include teenagers up to 18, or possibly 19, and Palestinian terrorist groups actively recruit teenagers.[12] The al-Ahli figures indicate that the minor premise (that 70% of the casualties are women and children) is also false. The conclusion is therefore unlikely to be valid. Other analyses have also demonstrated the statistical impossibility of the claim that women and children make up 70% of Gazan casualties.[13] Indeed, the United Nations recently reduced its estimates of women and children killed in Gaza by almost 50%.[14]

The fact that the “list of names” document released in late October includes fabricated casualties of the al-Ahli explosion is also of interest. This document was examined in an article in The Lancet[15] which looked at the age and gender distributions of the recorded casualties, and patterns in the ID numbers of the casualties. The article concluded that the data in this document looked credible. This shows that data can appear to be credible even though it has been manipulated.

Thus total casualty figures produced by the Gaza Ministry of Health in previous Israeli military operations in Gaza that were accepted as broadly correct at the time may also have been manipulated. In any event, it has been convincingly shown that the numbers and proportions of those figures that were said to be combatants were seriously understated.[16]

In the present conflict, the Gaza Ministries have not broken down the figures into combatants and civilians, but have relied on apparently inflated numbers of female and “child” casualties and the false assumption that women and “children” cannot be terrorists to mislead UN organisations, media, the public and courts into believing that a high proportion of Palestinian casualties are civilians.

[1] https://camera-uk.org/2023/10/19/why-bbc-reporting-on-the-al-ahli-hospital-incident-should-not-surprise/; https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/10/18/gazas-ahli-arab-hospital-after-the-attack-that-killed-at-least-500-people#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWhat%20happened%20is%20a%20crime,massacring%20more%20than%20500%20souls.%E2%80%9D; https://x.com/mishtal/status/1753356774902464662

[2] https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/26/gaza-findings-october-17-al-ahli-hospital-explosion; https://www.local10.com/video/this-week-in-south-florida/2023/10/22/bishop-gregory-rickel-discusses-al-ahli-hospital-in-gaza-where-hundreds-died-in-an-explosion/; https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-10-19-23/h_b58d72c70802cac6ae3c4fa9a1699644

[3] https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/26/gaza-findings-october-17-al-ahli-hospital-explosion; https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-france-intelligence-7be0d59b9ceb58bbf2f03c5dc8222356

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-intel-says-gaza-hospital-death-toll-likely-between-100-300-2023-10-19/; https://web.archive.org/web/20231020003240/https:/www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-blast-deaths.html

[5] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/european-intelligence-source-tells-afp-a-maximum-of-50-killed-in-gaza-hospital/#:~:text=October%2019%2C%202023-,European%20intelligence%20source%20tells%20AFP%3A%20A%20maximum,50%20killed%20in%20Gaza%20hospital&text=A%20senior%20European%20intelligence%20source,Hospital%20in%20Gaza%20on%20Tuesday

[6] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-france-intelligence-7be0d59b9ceb58bbf2f03c5dc8222356

[7] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-france-intelligence-7be0d59b9ceb58bbf2f03c5dc8222356

[8] Eg in https://youtu.be/_M15lTZ41dM?si=R8W5UkBwejiSHcfJ

[9] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033; https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/longform/2023/11/1/know-their-namespalestinians-killed-in-israeli-attacks-on-gaza

[10] https://fathomjournal.org/statistically-impossible-a-critical-analysis-of-hamass-women-and-children-casualty-figures/; https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-hamas-manipulates-gaza-fatality-numbers-examining-male-undercount-and-other; https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gaza-fatality-data-has-become-completely-unreliable

[11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67347201

[12] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-accuses-hamas-islamic-jihad-of-using-child-soldiers/; https://www.wionews.com/world/are-hamas-resorted-to-training-kids-to-defend-gaza-reports-suggests-so-647418; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12634107/Hamas-resorts-training-children-defend-Gaza-Israeli-troops-mass-border.html; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_qOZCxvmNg; https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/hamas-continues-recruiting-child-soldiers-so-where-is-the-condemnation-672163; https://www.timesofisrael.com/shin-bet-hamas-recruiting-teens-to-carry-out-terror-attacks-kidnappings/; https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/07/hamas-defends-its-military-summer-camps-for-children-and-teenagers.php; https://www.haaretz.com/2015-02-11/ty-article/.premium/hamas-training-camps-for-gaza-kids-a-hit/0000017f-db2e-df62-a9ff-dfff906c0000; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/heres-what-a-hamas-training-camp-for-teens-looks-like/2015/01/29/ef0b4092-a33f-11e4-9f89-561284a573f8_story.html.